NASA Rules Out Earth Impact in 2036 for Asteroid Apophis

NASA Rules Out Earth Impact in 2036 for Asteroid Apophis

: james_nicoll; January 11th, 1:28

"With the new data provided by the Magdalena Ridge [New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology] and the Pan-STARRS [Univ. of Hawaii] optical observatories, along with very recent data provided by the Goldstone Solar System Radar, we have effectively ruled out the possibility of an Earth impact by Apophis in 2036," said Don Yeomans, manager of NASA's Near-Earth Object Program Office at JPL. "The impact odds as they stand now are less than one in a million, which makes us comfortable saying we can effectively rule out an Earth impact in 2036.

A million to one? Where have I heard that?

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( 10 comments — Leave a comment )

maruad

2013-01-11 07:30 am (UTC)

Just as well although it would have been a bang up way to turn 80.

michaelgr

2013-01-11 10:45 am (UTC)

As long as it's not *exactly* a one-in-a-million chance.

krin_o_o_

2013-01-12 03:57 pm (UTC)

I was trying to remember where I saw that meme....

Helpful math

(Anonymous)

2013-01-11 10:50 am (UTC)

The impact odds being less than one in a million, I'll make a wild guess and call them one in five million. Assuming a direct hit will kill everyone on the planet, and assuming the world population in 2036 will be 8 billion, the expected number of dead people is 8 billion divided by five million, which is 1600 according to the Google calculator.

Now, there were recorded 17 shark fatalities in 2011, according to Wikipedia, so accounting for the increase in human population and sharks getting hungrier over time, we can estimate a nice round number of 20 expected shark fatalities in 2036.

People, Apophis is still expected to be 80 times worse than sharks! It's not a laughing matter. Careful mathematical reasoning always reveals the truth.

Re: Helpful math

james_nicoll

2013-01-11 03:59 pm (UTC)

Apophis isn't that large or moving that fast: think a gigaton, enough to set fire to Missouri (although that is not a possible impact site). Bad, not apocalyptic.

Re: Helpful math

(Anonymous)

2013-01-11 04:16 pm (UTC)

OK, better retract my result then. I thought because it has a scary name like Apophis it'll end the world, but apparently that doesn't constitute valid astronomical reasoning. I still think they should have called it asteroid Fluffy Bunny or something, though.

Thanks for the correction.

xinef

2013-01-11 01:30 pm (UTC)

Check out today's xkcd comic! Same sort of theme.
http://xkcd.com/1159/

bwross

2013-01-12 05:58 am (UTC)

My first thought is that this would have been a lot better if he had covered more zeros... Black Hat could have been jerking people around every 11.6 days (1M second) as opposed to two orders of magnitude more (which would be about 3 years). My second thought is that the SPP (silent penultimate panel) is unnecessary, as time in the gutters is clearly delineated, and that the final pause could have been made as subtle as the one between panels one and two.

tiger_spot

2013-01-11 02:51 pm (UTC)

I love that musical.

beckyh2112

2013-01-14 03:40 am (UTC)

If you hadn't posted that song, I would have been dreadfully disappointed. (Also, earwormed to heck.)

( 10 comments — Leave a comment )

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james_nicoll

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Helpful math

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Re: Helpful math